With nine rounds left in the regular season, EuroLeague Round 30 (5–6 March 2026) is where contenders separate themselves and the play-in picture sharpens. Fenerbahce sit alone at the top at 21–7 with a +93 point differential; Valencia are two games back at 19–10 but own the best attack in the league (91.0 ppg) and a +149 margin. From third to tenth, six teams are within two wins—every result in Round 30 will ripple through the standings. Here’s a game-by-game look and where the smart money points.
Thursday 5 March: Derbies and must-wins
Maccabi–Hapoel (19:05) — Tel Aviv derby
Maccabi (14–15) host Hapoel (17–11) in the first of two blockbuster derbies this round. Maccabi score (89.6 ppg) but bleed points (91.7 allowed); Hapoel are plus-88 on the season and have Elijah Bryant at 20.92 PIR and 27.0 PIR over his last five. Hapoel need this to stay in the top-six mix; Maccabi need it to keep play-in hopes alive. Prediction: Hapoel by 4–8. Bryant and Dan Oturu (14.6 PIR last 5) give the visitors the edge in a close, emotional game.
Fenerbahce–Monaco (17:45)
The round’s marquee clash: leaders Fenerbahce (21–7) welcome Monaco (16–13), who sit ninth but are second in the league in scoring (90.8 ppg) and have Mike James (18.62 PIR, 19.8 last five). Fener allow the fewest points among title hopefuls (82.5 ppg) and are 12–2 at home. Monaco’s 7–13 away record is a concern. If James and Nikola Mirotic get going, they can steal one; more likely, Fener’s defence and Wade Baldwin IV close it out. Prediction: Fenerbahce by 6–10.
Real Madrid–Virtus Bologna (19:45)
Real Madrid (18–11, 13–2 at home) host Virtus (13–16, 4–12 away). Madrid’s frontcourt—Walter Tavares, Trey Lyles, Mario Hezonja—should dominate; Virtus rely on Carsen Edwards (18.0 ppg) and have struggled on the road. Prediction: Real Madrid by 12–16.
Valencia–Zalgiris (19:30)
Second-placed Valencia (19–10, 91.0 ppg) face Zalgiris (17–12), who sit sixth with a +158 point differential. Sylvain Francisco (20.14 PIR, 21.0 last five) runs the show for Zalgiris; Jean Montero (21.6 PIR last five) and Valencia’s depth can overwhelm in La Fonteta. Prediction: Valencia by 5–9.
Milan–Barcelona (19:30)
EA7 Milan (14–15, −28 diff) need a statement win; Barcelona (17–12) are fighting for a top-four seed. Josh Nebo (21.5 PIR last five) and Zach LeDay give Milan punch inside; Barça have Kevin Punter and Tornike Shengelia in form. Home court keeps it tight. Prediction: Barcelona by 2–6.
Partizan–Dubai (19:30)
Partizan (9–20, −227) are in a deep hole; Dubai (15–14) are one win outside the top eight. Carlik Jones (22.0 PIR last five) and Bruno Fernando can lift Partizan at home, but Mfiondu Kabengele (22.8 PIR last five) and Dubai’s balance tip the scale. Prediction: Dubai by 3–7.
Friday 6 March: Greek derby and survival fights
Olympiacos–Panathinaikos (19:15) — Greek derby
The rivalry needs no introduction. Olympiacos (18–10, +164) are third and own the league’s top performer: Sasha Vezenkov (23.44 PIR, 19.3 ppg, 23.75 last five). Panathinaikos (16–13) counter with Nigel Hayes-Davis, who is on fire—30.0 PIR and 27.0 ppg over his last five. In Piraeus, with Nikola Milutinov and Vezenkov inside, the Reds have the edge. Prediction: Olympiacos by 4–8. Expect a scrap and a late run from PAO; home team holds.
Crvena Zvezda–Bayern (19:00)
Zvezda (17–12) are 11–4 at home; Bayern (12–17) are 2–15 away. Jordan Nwora (18.2 PIR last five) and Chima Moneke give Zvezda firepower; Bayern’s Andreas Obst (19.0 PIR, 22.75 ppg last five) can keep it interesting. Prediction: Crvena Zvezda by 8–12.
Efes–ASVEL (17:30) & Baskonia–Paris (19:30)
Efes (9–20) and ASVEL (7–22) are playing for pride; Baskonia (9–20) host Paris (10–18) in a clash of two teams that can still score (Baskonia 87.0, Paris 89.5 ppg) but sit in the bottom half. Predictions: Efes at home by 6–10; Baskonia by 4–8 in a high-tempo game.
Standings and form: the numbers that matter
Beyond wins and losses, point differential tells the story: Valencia (+149) and Olympiacos (+164) are the only top sides with a margin above +130; Fenerbahce (+93) and Hapoel (+88) win close. At the wrong end, Partizan (−227) and ASVEL (−225) have bled points. The league’s top offences—Valencia (91.0), Monaco (90.8), Olympiacos (90.1)—will all be in action; the best individual form belongs to Hayes-Davis (30.0 PIR last 5), Bryant (27.0), and Vezenkov (23.75). Those three could swing the derbies.
| # | Team | W–L | Pts diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul | 21–7 | +93 |
| 2 | Valencia Basket | 19–10 | +149 |
| 3 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 18–10 | +164 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 18–11 | +133 |
| 5 | Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 17–11 | +88 |
| 6 | Zalgiris Kaunas | 17–12 | +158 |
| 7 | Crvena Zvezda | 17–12 | +55 |
| 8 | FC Barcelona | 17–12 | +34 |
| 9 | AS Monaco | 16–13 | +131 |
| 10 | Panathinaikos | 16–13 | +40 |
Bottom line
Round 30 is a pivot point: Fenerbahce can pad their lead, Valencia can keep pressure on, and the Greek and Israeli derbies will shape both the table and morale. The data favours home sides in the big games—Olympiacos in Piraeus, Fener in Istanbul, Madrid in WiZink—with Hapoel as the main road pick in Tel Aviv. Expect at least one upset; the form of Hayes-Davis, Bryant, and Vezenkov makes the derbies the ones to watch. Strap in.
